SWOD48
SPC AC 150901
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
..DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO ENOUGH AGREEMENT -- AT LEAST FOR DAY 4 /THU.
OCT. 18/ -- THAT SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO INTRODUCE A SEVERE
AREA CENTERED ON THE OH/TN VALLEYS. SOME DEGREE OF INTENSITY/TIMING
DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE MAIN FEATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
DAY 4. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH TO ALLOW STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. MODELS
FORECAST STRONG SHEAR /50 TO 60 KT SWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS/...WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.
DAY 5...SOME THREAT MAY EXIST OVER THE ERN CONUS...THOUGH MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED -- WITH THE GFS COLD
FRONTAL POSITION W OF THE APPALACHIANS AT 20/00Z...WHILE THE ECMWF
DEPICTS THIS FRONT NEARLY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THUS...WILL NOT
INTRODUCE AN OUTLOOK AREA DAY 5. BEYOND DAY 5...MODEL DIFFERENCES
BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED...CASTING FURTHER UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
.GOSS.. 10/15/2007
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