MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2084

ACUS11 KWNS 151252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151252
TXZ000-151515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2084
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL...N-CENTRAL AND NERN TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 151252Z - 151515Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS...MRGLLY SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS
SHORT-LIVED TORNADIC SPIN-UP ASSOCIATED WITH LEWP/BOW CIRCULATION --
HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS N-CENTRAL TX...ESPECIALLY FROM CENTRAL
PORTIONS METROPLEX EWD ACROSS PORTIONS COLLIN/DALLAS/ROCKWALL
COUNTIES ENEWD TOWARD MORRIS/BOWIE/WOOD/FRANKLIN COUNTIES.
ASSOCIATED BAND OF TSTMS -- EVIDENT AT 1230Z FROM MILLS TO COLLIN
COUNTIES -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES EWD
INTO VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WITH SFC DEW POINTS NEAR 70
F...IN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE SHEAR AND BUOYANCY. 12Z FWD RAOB --
LAUNCHED IN IMMEDIATE PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT -- APPEARS QUITE
REPRESENTATIVE OF NRN END OF MOISTURE PLUME AND OF KINEMATIC
PROFILES WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2300 J/KG...MLCAPE APCHG 2000 J/KG...AND
JUST ENOUGH SFC THETAE TO BASE EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCEL AT GROUND
LEVEL.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER MCS
ACTIVITY...EXTENDING FROM METROPLEX ROUGHLY ENEWD INVOF I-30 TOWARD
TXK. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY...ALONG AND E OF
APPARENT MESOLOW LOCATED INVOF DFW AIRPORT AS OF 1230Z. THIS
MESOLOW CORRESPONDS CLOSELY TO LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN -- LEWP --
FORMATION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG TSTM BAND. MORE LEWP/BOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD ACROSS CENTRAL THROUGH
NWRN TX. WHILE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESSES ARE EVIDENT IN 2-4 KM AGL
HODOGRAPHS...EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES UP TO 60 KT ARE ANALYZED
OVER THIS REGION...IN SUPPORT OF POTENTIAL FOR MESOCYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITH EITHER SUSTAINED/DISCRETE STORMS OR BOWS/LEWPS.
LATTER REMAINS MORE LIKELY IN THIS REGIME...ESPECIALLY WHERE
DEVELOPING MCS INTERSECTS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND VORTICITY WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED.

.EDWARDS.. 10/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...

31509852 32209759 33019704 33269550 33349451 32829439
32259498 31369642 30959800

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