SWOD48
SPC AC 060839
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT
INTO DAY 6 /SUN OCT 11/...AS A LARGE TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY BUT
STEADILY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NOAM THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. DAY 4 /FRI OCT 9/...AND THEN OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD THE FIRST HALF OF DAY 5 /SAT OCT 10/. SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE MID SOUTH REGION DAY 4 AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION -- PARTICULARLY WITH NWD EXTENT --
WILL LIKELY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION/SEVERE
THREAT. THUS -- INCLUSION OF A SEVERE THREAT AREA THIS FORECAST IS
NOT WARRANTED.
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO DAY 5...HIGHER
THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NEAR -- OR JUST OFF --
THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS FL. WITH THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
LARGE-SCALE FEATURE EVIDENT WHICH COULD ALLOW A RETURN OF A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER NWD...LITTLE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
..GOSS.. 10/06/2009
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