MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2071

ACUS11 KWNS 060815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060815
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-061015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2071
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...SWRN...CNTRL AND NERN OK...SERN KS AND
SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 060815Z - 061015Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM NWRN TX THROUGH OK
AND SERN KS/SWRN MO THIS MORNING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

EARLY THIS MORNING A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS DEVELOPING OVER
NWRN TX AND SWRN OK. OTHER STORMS CONTINUE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM WRN MO THROUGH SERN KS. ACTIVITY IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH
A 50 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING AHEAD OF A SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM NERN KS SWWD THROUGH NW OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
STORMS ARE ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
RESERVOIR OF 2000-2500 J/KG MUCAPE HAS DEVELOPED WHERE 7 C/KM MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE OVERSPREAD THE MOIST AXIS.

RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INVERSION IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER...SO STORMS OVER NWRN TX AND SWRN OK ARE PROBABLY NOT
CURRENTLY INGESTING THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR LOCATED AT THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS FARTHER NE ACROSS SERN KS AND WRN MO ARE
FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STORMS COULD BECOME
ROOTED FARTHER DOWN LATER THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AS THE DEEPER
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ADVANCES FARTHER SE. IF THIS OCCURS
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITIES WOULD LIKELY INCREASE WITH A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL GIVEN PRESENCE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY...SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION.

..DIAL.. 10/06/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...LUB...

LAT...LON 34650006 36189742 38419439 37709362 35149613 33719919
34650006

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