SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061247
OKZ000-TXZ000-061415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2072
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX THROUGH SWRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 756...
VALID 061247Z - 061415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 756
CONTINUES.
MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z FROM NWRN TX THROUGH SRN OK AND WRN AR. PRIMARY
THREAT APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING TO HEAVY RAIN.
ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP
LAYER CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH 50+ KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET
AND SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE OBSERVED 12 RAOB DATA INDICATE
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE AND 6.5-7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. TENDENCY
HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO CONSOLIDATE INTO LINEAR STRUCTURES...BUT
GIVEN 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL. OTHERWISE...STRONG GUSTY WINDS
COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER ACTIVITY...BUT A RELATIVELY STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY LIMIT OVERALL WIND THREAT. LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
STORMS TRAIN FROM SW-NE ACROSS SRN AND SERN OK NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
..DIAL.. 10/06/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34249474 33489733 33589917 34669683 35289447 34249474
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