SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070121
TXZ000-070315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2075
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0821 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW/S-CENTRAL TX NEAR RIO GRANDE.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 070121Z - 070315Z
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS -- INCLUDING INTERMITTENT
SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION -- HAVE DEVELOPED FROM TERRELL COUNTY SWD
OVER PORTIONS COAHUILA. CONVECTION IN AND NEAR SERRANIAS DEL BURRO
RANGE IS FCST TO REMAIN OVER MEX...HOWEVER FCST STORM MOTIONS N OF
RIVER INDICATE SOME SVR POTENTIAL OVER AREAS OF DRT.
SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT ACROSS WILLIAMSON...EDWARDS
AND VAL VERDE COUNTIES...MOVING SWD ABOUT 15 KT...AND PREFRONTAL
CONFLUENCE LINE FROM NRN COAHUILA ESEWD ACROSS PORTIONS
MAVERICK/ZAVALA COUNTIES. CONVECTION OVER TERREL COUNTY RESIDES
ALONG WRN SEGMENT OF THIS FRONT...AND MAY MAINTAIN SFC-BASED
EFFECTIVE INFLOW AS LONG AS DEVIANT/PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT OF STORM
MOTION CAN KEEP UP WITH FRONTAL PROGRESS. DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL
WILL DIMINISH SHARPLY ONCE CONVECTION IS UNDERCUT BY FRONT...BUT
ISOLATED HAIL STILL WILL BE POSSIBLE. INITIAL
INFLOW-LAYER/WARM-SECTOR AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE AROUND
3000 J/KG...DIMINISHING WITH EWD EXTENT AHEAD OF FRONT..AND OF
COURSE DROPPING SHARPLY NWD THROUGH FRONTAL ZONE. WARM-SECTOR SHEAR
PROFILES APPEAR MRGL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AND EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 100-200 J/KG...N OF CONFLUENCE LINE WHERE
FLOW IS WEAK BUT RELATIVELY BACKED. BRIEF/HEAVY-PRECIP
SUPERCELLULAR EVOLUTION HAS BEEN NOTED WITH CONVECTION FARTHER S IN
MEX MOUNTAINS DURING PAST 2-3 HOURS...BEFORE IT CONGEALED INTO
LINEAR/MULTICELLULAR CLUSTER. THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OVER
MEX...GIVEN CONSIDERABLY STRONGER MLCINH EVIDENT AWAY FROM HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON BOTH SIDES OF RIO GRANDE. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
ONE OR TWO LEFT-MOVING TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER MEX AND CROSS
RIVER...HOWEVER ANY SUCH ACTIVITY ALSO SHOULD BE UNDERCUT BY COLD
FRONT RATHER QUICKLY.
..EDWARDS.. 10/07/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 29850228 30090196 30320129 30230082 29840015 29090025
28720052 29120064 29130077 29270082 29490110 29520126
29650120 29580131 29780143 29750166 29800180 29790205
29850228
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment