MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2076

ACUS11 KWNS 070125
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070124
ALZ000-MSZ000-070300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2076
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0824 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MS AND W-CENTRAL AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 070124Z - 070300Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXISTS OVER CENTRAL MS INTO
W-CENTRAL AL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT A WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY AT
THIS TIME.

A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS CONSISTING OF QUASI-DISCRETE MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AND BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG
AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN LA INTO CENTRAL
MS AND AL. THE 00Z OBSERVED JAN SOUNDING INDICATES A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PWAT
VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES AND A MEAN MIXING RATIO OF 19.5 G/KG...WHICH
IS AIDING IN MLCAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SURFACE WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO SSELY N OF THE
WARM FRONT...WITH VEERING WIND PROFILES AND AN INCREASE IN SPEED TO
40 KT THROUGH 6 KM NOTED. THIS WIND PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
BRIEF SUPERCELLS...WHICH MAY DISPLAY OCCASIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF
LOW LEVEL ROTATION AS THEY EXPERIENCE 0-1 KM SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF
100 M2 S-2 LOCATED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHICH SUGGESTS AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT EXISTS. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE VERY
MOIST AIRMASS AND LARGE MLCAPE ENVIRONMENT...WET MICROBURSTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR A WW DUE TO SLOW BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZATION WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...IN ADDITION TO
STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION.

..GARNER.. 10/07/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 32488654 31658706 32249086 32859082 33348908 33248743
32488654

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