SWODY2
SPC AC 060556
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A STRONG UPPER LOW/TROUGH SWEEPS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND...A SECOND POTENT LOW/TROUGH OFF THE SRN CA
COAST EARLY WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS EWD. AS IT DOES...THIS FEATURE
IS PROGGED TO PHASE WITH A NRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE FEATURE DIGGING
SSEWD INTO THE ROCKIES AND THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGE WRN/CENTRAL
CANADA VORTEX. THE RESULT WILL BE A LARGE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND WRN CANADA AND THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT LINGERS ACROSS SRN AND WRN TX/NRN
MEXICO. MEANWHILE...A SECOND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. AND SEWD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT.
...PARTS OF W TX AND SERN NM...
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS MUCH
OF TX...WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION NEAR AND N OF THE
LINGERING SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER SRN TX/NRN MEXICO.
THIS FRONT MAY RETREAT SLOWLY ACROSS FAR W TX AND ADJACENT SRN NM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WHICH --
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING -- SHOULD RESULT IN MODEST
SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF THIS AREA.
FARTHER N...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED...SPREADING NEWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND PARTS OF KS LATE.
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION NEAR AND S
OF THE RETREATING FRONT...SHORT-WAVE RIDGING SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS
THIS REGION UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
SLOWLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING MAY HINDER APPRECIABLE WARM
SECTOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...ANY ISOLATED STORM WHICH
COULD FORM WOULD RESIDE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE
SHEAR/VEERING WITH HEIGHT -- AND THUS WOULD LIKELY EXHIBIT SOME
ORGANIZATION/SEVERE POTENTIAL.
STORMS SHOULD INCREASE/SPREAD NWD OVERNIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND THUS YIELDS INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WHILE SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR AS FAR N AS
OK/KS...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED N/NE OF SERN NM/THE TX SOUTH
PLAINS REGION.
..GOSS.. 10/06/2009
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