DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 151721
SWODY2
SPC AC 151720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND ERN GULF COASTAL REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE U.S.
THIS PERIOD. TROUGHING ON THE SRN FRINGE OF AN ERN CANADA VORTEX
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NE/NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A SECOND TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. A THIRD
TROUGH -- A SHARP/POSITIVELY TILTED FEATURE CROSSING THE SRN
PLAINS/WRN GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD -- WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE NE
U.S. AS A LOW RETREATS ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MEANWHILE...A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NWRN U.S. AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH. FINALLY...A SLOWLY WEAKENING LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE GULF COAST STATES/SERN U.S.
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF COASTAL REGION...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING FROM PORTIONS OF E
TX EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
REGION...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED/PROGRESSING STORM SYSTEM. SOME
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD OVER THE SERN LA/SRN MS
VICINITY. WITH TIME...THIS RISK SHOULD SPREAD EWD AS MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE SRN FRINGE OF AN
EXPECTED/MORE WIDESPREAD ZONE OF WARM-ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO THE TN VALLEY.

WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW LIKELY TO BE LARGELY VEERED...TORNADO RISK
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED -- PARTICULARLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF
COASTAL REGION...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY TO BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE RISK. SOME RISK FOR EVOLUTION OF A SEMI-ORGANIZED
LINE OF STORMS NEAR THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PEAK ACROSS THE SRN HALF
OF AL WOULD LIKELY CORRESPOND TO A PEAK IN SEVERE RISK...AFTER WHICH
THE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

..GOSS.. 03/15/2014

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