DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 150850
SWOD48
SPC AC 150849

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THESE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
ON TUESDAY/DAY 4 WITH THE GFS THE FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BY
WEDNESDAY/DAY 5...THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BY THURSDAY/DAY 6...THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS MOVE THE SYSTEM TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH THE GFS
AGAIN THE FASTER SOLUTION. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM
CROSSING THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SCNTRL STATES. COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT
MOISTURE RETURN MAKING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPARSE DURING THE EARLY
TO MID WEEK. BEYOND THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS.

..BROYLES.. 03/15/2014

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