DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 150550
SWODY2
SPC AC 150548

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE LA...SRN
MS...SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...CNTRL TO ERN GULF COAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AT
THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE OZARKS EWD INTO THE TN
VALLEY AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IN A REGION OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF
COAST STATES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO A LINE BY LATE
MORNING ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AS BOUNDARY-LAYER
CONVERGENCE BECOMES ENHANCED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD
ENABLE THE LINE TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE WARM-SECTOR ENVIRONMENT FROM SE LA EWD TO THE FL PANHANDLE ON
SUNDAY WILL BE MOIST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS THAT ARE NOT AFFECTED BY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT PENSACOLA FL AT 18Z
TO 19Z SHOW SBCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 45 KT.
THIS COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A
WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE BETTER-ORGANIZED SEGMENTS OF THE LINE. A
MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
OF AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE AROUND MIDDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A 40
TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE ECMWF FORECASTS THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO
MOVE NEWD AWAY FROM THE FL PANHANDLE FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
IN THE MID MS VALLEY APPROACHES. FOR THIS REASON...THE SEVERE THREAT
MAY BECOME MARGINAL BY EARLY EVENING IN THE ERN GULF COAST REGION.

..BROYLES.. 03/15/2014

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