MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0183

ACUS11 KWNS 151814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151813
TXZ000-OKZ000-152015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/N TX...EXTREME SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 151813Z - 152015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH REMAINDER OF AFTN. SCTD SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH LARGE
HAIL AND A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS...AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A
WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 20Z.

DISCUSSION...LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD/DIFFUSE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS W TX WITH MODEST SE/SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
CONTRIBUTING TO MOISTENING/GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA. TSTMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST TWO
HOURS AS LARGER-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS WRN PORTIONS OF
N TX. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER/PRECIP WILL LIMIT OVERALL
DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER EXPECT A CORRIDOR OF MLCAPES OF
1000 - 1250 J/KG TO DEVELOP BY MID-LATE AFTN AS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
COMBINES WITH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER/LOCALLY GREATER HEATING.

LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES CENTRAL/NRN TX AND SRN OK...WITH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE FROM
KFWS REFLECTS A STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPH SUPPORTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL
FOR SPLITTING STORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH
DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEATING/STEEPER
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS/SRH ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...LIMITING
THE OVERALL THREAT.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW IS POSSIBLE
BY 20Z.

..BUNTING/CORFIDI.. 03/15/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 34399810 34389646 34029607 33609581 33099583 32419575
31859584 31389636 31299695 31209753 31149811 31179862
31359895 31629936 32069947 33009943 33549909 34399810

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