SWOD48
SPC AC 290711
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010
VALID 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH
ABOUT SUN/D5 WITH LARGE TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ERN STATES AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN A LACK OF INSTABILITY E OF THE ROCKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE.
WHILE THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER IN SOME FORM OVER THE ERN
CONUS...THERE IS MUCH DIFFERENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF
THE RIDGE AS A NEW TROUGH AFFECTS EITHER THE PACIFIC NW/GFS
SOLUTION/ OR THE ENTIRE W COAST/ECMWF SOLUTION/. REGARDLESS...THERE
IS LITTLE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN MEAGER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY.
..JEWELL.. 09/29/2010
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