SWODY1
SPC AC 300030
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 PM CDT WED SEP 29 2010
VALID 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN SC THROUGH ERN NC AND
SERN VA...
...NERN SC...ERN NC THROUGH SERN VA...
EARLY THIS EVENING A COASTAL FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN VA SWD THROUGH
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND NRN FL. LOW 70S DEWPOINTS EXIST ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A VORT MAX EMBEDDED
WITHIN UPPER LEVEL INFLECTION POINT OFF THE GA COAST. THIS FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY LIFT NWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS. A STRENGTHENING SELY
LOW LEVEL JET RESULTING FROM THIS PROCESS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NWWD
ADVECTION OF RICHER MOISTURE THROUGH ERN SC...NC AND SERN VA AS WELL
AS MAINTAIN LARGE HODOGRAPHS ALONG AND EAST OF THE COASTAL BOUNDARY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE WEAK INSTABILITY. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR ROTATING STORMS
OFFSHORE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INLAND. MODEST DESTABILIZATION
FARTHER WWD MAY OCCUR TONIGHT DUE TO WWD ADVECTION OF RICHER
MOISTURE...SUGGESTING THAT WITH TIME STORMS MAY SURVIVE FARTHER
INLAND. THOUGH THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SERVE AS
A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT...SOME RISK FOR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
PERSIST.
..DIAL.. 09/30/2010
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