SWODY2
SPC AC 290539
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER GA WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
WEAKEN WITH TIME AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN A NRN STREAM TROUGH
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS SWD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC MERGING WITH A TROPICAL LOW. ALONG AND E OF THIS SFC
TROUGH...A TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL EXIST WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE
LOWER 70S. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL EXIST ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR...FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO NEW ENGLAND.
...ERN NC NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM ERN NC NWD INTO
NJ/PA/SRN NY WITHIN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME. DURING THE DAY...A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRANSLATE NWD FROM NC/VA INTO NY BY 00Z. ALONG
AND E OF THE LOW TRACK...INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED. MUCAPE TO
AROUND 500 J/KG IS EXPECTED OVER ERN NC/VA...BUT DECREASING TO
AROUND 100 J/KG OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN TREMENDOUS SHEAR
PROFILES WITH 70+ KT AT 850 MB...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO MAY BE OVER ERN NC INTO THE DELMARVA WHERE THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST.
..JEWELL.. 09/29/2010
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