Wednesday, September 29, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1905

ACUS11 KWNS 300043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300042
NCZ000-SCZ000-300215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1905
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...ERN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 300042Z - 300215Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE TONIGHT AND A WW MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF NICOLE FEEDING NWD INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A LARGE AREA
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED NEAR THE COAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE FROM SC AND EXTENDS NNEWD
INTO THE OUTERBANKS OF NC. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INLAND ACROSS ERN NC AS A SFC LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING. MODEL FORECASTS RAPIDLY MOVE A 50 TO 65 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
TOWARDS ERN NC TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD INCREASE BOUNDARY MOISTURE AND
SHEAR PROFILES MARKEDLY DURING THE 03Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. THE 00Z
SOUNDING FROM MOREHEAD CITY NC SHOWS A MUCAPE OF 1700 J/KG WITH SFC
TO 1 KM SHEAR OF 35 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY SUPPORTIVE OF
ROTATING STORMS AND A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THREAT
BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE BY LATE THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 09/30/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...

LAT...LON 36367590 36537662 36407738 36057789 34737917 33397993
32877973 33007908 33827752 34357661 35237560 35917558
36367590

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