ACUS48 KWNS 190817
SWOD48
SPC AC 190816
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF AGREE IN THE MEAN THAT AN UPPER TOUGH WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE WEST COAST BY 26/12Z. OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS THE LACK
OF MOVEMENT OF THE DOWNSTREAM EAST COAST TROUGH AND EXPECTED
INTENSIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MS VALLEY. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO IT DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RAPID OR EARLY MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN EJECTING A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITH MEANINGFUL HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS
MID WEEK THAN THE ECMWF. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THIS ISSUE AND IN THE ABSENCE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN
PLACE THE PREDICTABILITY OF SEVERE WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL THESE
ISSUES ARE RESOLVED.
..DARROW.. 05/19/2012
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