DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 191731
SWODY2
SPC AC 191730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A WEAK/CUT-OFF UPPER LOW LINGERS INVOF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE
WEST...RIDGING IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL...THOUGH A LEAD IMPULSE --
AHEAD OF A LARGER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE NERN PACIFIC -- IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE PAC NW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A RELATIVELY WEAK PATTERN IS PROGGED...WITH THE
MOST PRONOUNCED FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST TO
REMAIN THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOBILE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER
TROUGH. BY AFTERNOON...THIS FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY...AND THEN WSWWD
ACROSS OK INTO PARTS OF NWRN TX -- FOCUSING A SIMILARLY-ALIGNED BAND
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
SOME ONGOING CONVECTION PROGGED TO BE OCCURRING OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY REGION INVOF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING ASSISTS IN MODEST AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION. WHILE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MODEST
AND QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE...OVERALL KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER BANDS OF STORMS THROUGH PEAK
HEATING -- WITH A LOCAL THREAT FOR MARGINAL WIND/HAIL. THOUGH
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT -- SHIFTING
EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE WARM
SECTOR DIURNALLY STABILIZES.

...OK WSWWD ACROSS NWRN TX INTO PARTS OF SERN NM...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND VICINITY AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE
SURFACE FRONT LYING ACROSS THE AREA. DESTABILIZATION NEAR AND S OF
THE FRONT/ONGOING CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS -- FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL OK SWWD
INTO NWRN TX. WHILE OVERALL FLOW FIELD WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
WEAK...BACKED/ELY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS BENEATH MODEST MID-LEVEL WLYS
MAY RESULT IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION. THUS -- A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL/WIND WITHIN THIS REGION. OVERNIGHT...AN
INCREASING SELY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN HALF OF TX MAY
ALLOW AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION INTO PARTS OF W TX AND ERN NM.
AGAIN -- WHILE MID-LEVEL WLYS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...ENHANCED SELYS AT
LOW LEVELS SUGGEST SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONGER CELLS -- AND
ATTENDANT/LOW-END HAIL/WIND THREAT.

..GOSS.. 05/19/2012

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