ACUS11 KWNS 191645
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191644
FLZ000-191815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0836
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 191644Z - 191815Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH FL
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A WW.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 16Z SHOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS S
FL ARE WARMING INTO THE MID 80S...WHICH IS AIDING IN BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION AND DEEPENING CUMULUS. THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH A
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW
70S/ WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG...WHICH WILL FAVOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ORGANIZED
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL ELYS OCCURRING BENEATH 100 KT WLY SUB-TROPICAL JET. PRECIP
LOADING WITH STRONGER CELLS WILL FAVOR WET MICROBURSTS...WHILE LARGE
BUOYANCY AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.
IN ADDITION TO THE SVR WEATHER THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
..GARNER/WEISS.. 05/19/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...
LAT...LON 27008005 25498020 25208048 25138110 25948178 26858206
27318119 27388043 27008005
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