MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0837

ACUS11 KWNS 191838
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191837
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-192030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0837
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO THROUGH WRN KS AND SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 191837Z - 192030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL INTO EARLY EVENING FROM SERN CO THROUGH WRN KS AND SWRN NEB.
DUE TO THE VERY ISOLATED NATURE OF SEVERE EVENTS...A WW WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN NEB
SWWD THROUGH SWRN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAPID REFRESH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE VORT MAX OVER
ERN CO WHICH IS AUGMENTING LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE POST
FRONTAL REGIME WHERE 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE EXISTS. POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THESE STORMS ARE ROOTED NEAR 800 MB...BUT
EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED UNLESS TRENDS
BEGIN TO SUGGEST STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE.

..DIAL/WEISS.. 05/19/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 40990110 40380040 39040029 37830104 37120259 37160415
37930427 38970237 40630167 40990110

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