SWODY1
SPC AC 131606
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007
VALID 131630Z - 141200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF LOWER MS VALLEY...
..SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY TO WRN GREAT
LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG COLD FRONT FROM NRN MN SWWD INTO
NWRN KS WILL PUSH SEWD TO A POSITION FROM LH TO NRN OK LATER
TONIGHT.
T.S. HUMBERTO CURRENTLY SW LA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING TREND
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY.
..LOWER MS VALLEY...
ALTHOUGH T.S. HUMBERTO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...THE WIND PROFILES
IN ADVANCE OF CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING LOW
TOPPED STORMS THRU TONIGHT. AS HIGH THETAE AIR SPREADS FURTHER
INLAND ACROSS SRN MS...AND SOME HEATING OCCURS...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO SUPPORT STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD ACROSS SERN
LA/SRN MS TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT INTO TONIGHT.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SEWD THRU CENTRAL
KS INTO OK PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL ALONG WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A FEW PULSE STORMS INCLUDING
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.
.HALES/RACY.. 09/13/2007
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