SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131213
LAZ000-131415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1964
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN LA.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 669...
VALID 131213Z - 131415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 669 CONTINUES.
SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH HUMBERTO IS FCST TO SHIFT GENERALLY
EWD ACROSS SRN LA THROUGH 17Z...REMAINING MOSTLY BETWEEN I-10 AREA
AND COASTLINE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY. TO REFLECT THIS TREND...NEW OR REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE
REQUIRED BEFORE SCHEDULED 15Z EXPIRATION OF WW 669.
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MOST CONCENTRATED IN AND NEAR PRIMARY OUTER
BAND THAT WAS LOCATED FROM ACADIA/WRN LAFAYETTE/VERMILION PARISHES
SSEWD OVER GULF AS OF 1145Z. SEVERAL MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH SMALL BUT
PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL HORIZONTAL SHEAR COUPLETS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
DURING LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THIS BAND AND WITH RELATIVELY
DISCRETE CELLS JUST TO ITS E. IN ADDITION...INNER BANDING
STRUCTURES ARE BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS ERN PORTIONS
CAMERON/JEFF DAVIS PARISHES ATTM...IN ENVIRONMENT OF STG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR THAT ALSO WILL FAVOR MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY FOR
ANY RELATIVELY DISTINCT OR DISCRETE CELLS. PRIND FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES EARLIER SAMPLED BY LCH VWP -- AND NOW INDICATED
E OF THERE TOWARD LFT -- WILL SPREAD EWD AND NEWD ACROSS MORE OF
SRN/CENTRAL LA. NRN/INLAND EXTENT OF NEAR-TERM SUPERCELL/TORNADO
RISK...HOWEVER...SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DEFINED LOOSELY BY EXPANSIVE
PRECIP SHIELD AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL REMNANT OVER CENTRAL LA...WHICH
WILL RESTRICT DESTABILIZATION.
.EDWARDS.. 09/13/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
30389324 30519317 30609279 30559136 30369096 30199066
29929047 29469035 29169025 29059090 29339134 29319119
29519130 29529154 29639155 29649163 29589173 29499180
29499187 29569205 29589216 29529225 29589267 29819274
30179288 30269306
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