SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130650
LAZ000-TXZ000-130845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1962
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN LA...EXTREME SE CORNER TX -- TORNADO
THREAT WITH HURRICANE HUMBERTO.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 669...
VALID 130650Z - 130845Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 669 CONTINUES.
PRIND TORNADO RISK IS INCREASING PRIMARILY WITHIN AND JUST E OF
OUTER BAND EXTENDING SWD FROM CAMERON PARISH OVER OPEN
GULF...INCLUDING RELATIVELY DISCRETE/MINI-SUPERCELLS JUST AHEAD OF
THIS BAND. INTERMITTENT STORM-SCALE ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED OVER
GULF WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/BUOYANCY OVERLAPS SHOULD SPREAD INLAND WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR INLAND INITIALLY WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG
SBCINH EVIDENT IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS AWAY FROM
IMMEDIATE COAST. HOWEVER...ON GRADUAL BASIS THROUGH REMAINDER
PRE-DAWN HOURS...EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOIST/WARM ADVECTION INLAND TO
RESULT IN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH THETAE SFC PROFILE THAT EFFECTIVE LIFTED
PARCELS BECOME ROOTED AT SFC. THIS MAY SPREAD TORNADO THREAT INLAND
AT LEAST TO I-10 CORRIDOR BEFORE 12Z. LCH VWP INDICATES LOW LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES STRENGTHENING WITH TIME ACROSS REGION AS STRONGER
WINDS BOTH ON AND ABOVE SFC YIELD PROGRESSIVELY LARGER HODOGRAPHS.
THIS FAVORABLE KINEMATIC TREND LIKEWISE WILL SHIFT NEWD IN PHASE
WITH TRANSLATIONAL MOVEMENT OF HUMBERTO.
A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO IS POSSIBLE WITH INNER BAND NOW SHIFTING NEWD
ACROSS SERN CORNER OF TX...AND EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS WRN
CAMERON/CALCASIEU PARISHES THROUGH 11Z...THOUGH LACK OF RELATIVELY
DISCRETE/DISTINCT CELL STRUCTURES MAKES THREAT MORE
LIMITED/CONDITIONAL THAN INVOF OUTER BAND.
TORNADO WW MAY BE CLEARED FROM SW-NE ONCE INNER BAND/CORE REGION OF
HUMBERTO HAS PASSED. NEAR-TERM/MESOSCALE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS
BEING COVERED WITH SEPARATE DISCUSSIONS...E.G. MCD 1961. REF NHC
BULLETINS -- E.G. WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC -- FOR LATEST
TRACK/INTENSITY FCST AND TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS ON HUMBERTO.
.EDWARDS.. 09/13/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
29669398 29929403 30229369 30489300 30489239 30399177
30179143 29729139 29529154 29639155 29649163 29589173
29499180 29499187 29569205 29589216 29529225 29589267
29789322 29769347 29739376
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