SWODY1
SPC AC 040051
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009
VALID 040100Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES TWO CYCLONIC GYRES -- FIRST LIFTING
SLOWLY NWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SECOND DIGGING SWD
ACROSS ORE INTO NWRN GREAT BASIN/NRN SIERRAS REGION. S OF UPPER
RIDGE SEPARATING THESE SYSTEMS...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS GULF COAST STATES...FEATURING 110-130 KT 250 MB JET
CORE FROM AZ-AR FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NRN MEX AND S TX. MAIN ONE OF THESE
FEATURES APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/REINFORCED MID-UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE...NOW LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN TSTM CLUSTER OVER
SRN GULF OF CA THAT HAS BEEN SHEARED AWAY FROM RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF TD OLAF. SEVERAL MODELS -- INCLUDING LATEST
OPERATIONAL RUC/WRF/SPECTRAL...FCST THIS FEATURE TO MOVE ACROSS NRN
MEX OVERNIGHT...APCHG OR CROSSING NRN COAHUILA BY END OF PERIOD.
PROGGED TIMING/STRENGTH OF PERTURBATION VARIES CONSIDERABLY...WHICH
IS UNDERSTANDABLE GIVEN RELATIVE UPPER AIR DATA VOID IN WHICH IT
CURRENTLY RESIDES.
AT SFC...COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM ERN NY SSWWD ACROSS CHESAPEAKE
BAY...SERN GA AND FL PANHANDLE...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY WWD OVER
COASTAL MS/AL/SERN LA...THEN DIFFUSE WARM FRONT FROM JUST OFFSHORE
UPPER TX COAST ACROSS S-CENTRAL TX BETWEEN COT-LRD.
...S TX...
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVING WELL INLAND BUT
WEAKENING FROM JIM HOGG COUNTY NWD TO INTERSECTION WITH FRONT OVER
MCMULLEN COUNTY. MOST CONVECTION NOW IS LOCATED E OF SEA BREEZE AND
ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT...WITH GEN WEAKENING TENDENCY NOTED DURING
PAST HOUR. ISOLATED STG-SVR GUSTS STILL ARE POSSIBLE...GIVEN
RICHNESS OF THETAE EVEN ON PREVIOUSLY COOL SIDE OF SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY...AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
OCCASIONAL/SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. MODIFIED 00Z CRP RAOB
SHOWS MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN IN 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE OUTSIDE OF TSTM
CLUSTERS AND S OF FRONT FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING MLCINH.
..EDWARDS.. 10/04/2009
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