DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 030748
SWODY3
SPC AC 030746

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS
PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A LEE LOW OVER ERN CO IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE A SECOND AREA
OF CYCLOGENESIS EVOLVES OVER THE MID MO VALLEY. WITH TIME...THIS
NRN LOW WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE...SHIFTING ENEWD
TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT DRIVES SEWD
ACROSS KS/OK INTO MO/AR/N TX THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

...SRN PLAINS...
NWD RETURN OF A HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER INTO N TX/SRN OK IS
FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS PERSISTENT SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALLOWS A
LINGERING SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS TX TO SHIFT NWD WITH TIME.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT OF ERN CO INTO SWRN KS AND THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY-LAYER
HEATING/MOISTENING SHOULD RESULT IN AROUND 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER
CAPE FROM WRN OK SWD. THOUGH THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
N OF THIS REGION...SUBTLE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THE FAST WSWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW ARE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS. WHILE
CONVECTION FROM NRN OK NWD SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED...SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF N TX AND POSSIBLY INTO
SWRN OK.

WITH 50 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION
ATOP LOW-LEVEL SLYS...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS
-- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL. DURING THE EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD TAKE ON MORE OF A LINEAR CONFIGURATION INVOF THE SEWD-MOVING
COLD FRONT...WITH ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO
WRN AR/NERN AND CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 10/03/2009

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