SWOD48
SPC AC 030855
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
WHILE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...SMALLER-SCALE -- BUT SIGNIFICANT -- DIFFERENCES ARE
APPARENT AS EARLY AS DAY 4 /TUE. OCT. 6/. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH CONTINUE TO PROGRESS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN U.S. DAY
4...THEY DIFFER CONSIDERABLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. THOUGH SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD LIKELY EXIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD FROM TX EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...THREAT DOES NOT
WARRANT INCLUSION OF AN OUTLOOK AREA ATTM.
BEYOND DAY 4...AND SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED TO THE
SRN U.S. -- FROM W TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...AS A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIKELY LINGERS ACROSS THIS
REGION. AGAIN HOWEVER...MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT
EVIDENT ATTM.
..GOSS.. 10/03/2009
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