MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2063

ACUS11 KWNS 032256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032255
TXZ000-040030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2063
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0555 PM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 032255Z - 040030Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR
SOUTH TX...ROUGHLY 50-70 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE I-37
CORRIDOR...MAINLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MARGINAL/LIMITED
TEMPORAL NATURE OF THE RISK IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A WATCH
ISSUANCE.

SEVERAL SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP GENERALLY EASTWARD
ACROSS FAR SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IN VICINITY OF A
ROUGHLY WSW-ENE ORIENTED WARM FRONT. A RATHER MOIST/MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS IS COMBINING WITH AROUND
100-150 MS/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH /PER CRP AND EWD WSR-88D DERIVED DATA/
FOR AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR WIND DAMAGE. WHILE SUCH A
THREAT MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...SEVERAL FACTORS
SUGGEST A DIMINISHING SEVERE RISK THEREAFTER...INCLUDING CONTINUED
STORM MERGERS/INTERFERENCE...A STEADILY INLAND MOVING SEA
BREEZE...AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

..GUYER.. 10/03/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 27889798 27969893 28939852 29609697 28699662 27889798

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