SWODY2
SPC AC 031650
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
A WEST TO SOUTHWEST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS NORTH TX WITH A WARM SECTOR LOCATED FROM
THE TX HILL COUNTRY EWD INTO THE TX COASTAL PLAINS. WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR
...MODERATE INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL AND SE TX SHOULD
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM. ETA-KF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN SE TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOW VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH
HEIGHT AND 30-40 KT OF FLOW AT 500 MB. THIS ALONG WITH ABOUT 25 KT
AT 850 MB SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST BY THE GFS TO MOVE
ACROSS SE TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD ALSO ENHANCE THE THREAT. FOR
THESE REASONS...ADDED A 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY IN SE TX.
..BROYLES.. 10/03/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment