SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031938
TXZ000-032045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2062
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX TO THE UPR TX CST
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 031938Z - 032045Z
19Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WRMFNT NEAR KCOT-NORTH OF KVCT-SOUTH OF
KGLS. TSTMS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ALONG/N OF THE FRONT SINCE
LATE MORNING. STORMS SHOULD EXPAND N/NE WITH TIME AS SSWLY H85-H7
WIND FIELDS GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A MID-LVL SPEED MAX OVER
SWRN TX. THIS EXPANSION WILL ESPECIALLY BE NOTABLE FROM CNTRL INTO
SERN TX...ALONG THE NRN EDGE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT/ CAPPING.
TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM THE KAUS REGION ENEWD INTO SERN TX WILL LIKELY
BE ROOTED A FEW HUNDRED METERS ABOVE THE SFC PER LATEST RUC
SOUNDINGS. ANY STORM THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED CLOSER TO THE WRMFNT
ALONG THE UPR TX CST MAY ROOT LOWER TO THE SFC. IF THIS
OCCURS...EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH ISOLD DMGG WINDS POSSIBLE. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...THOUGH THE LLVL SELYS ARE SOMEWHAT ANEMIC...RESULTING
IN WEAK 0-1KM SRH.
..RACY.. 10/03/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 28999700 29489837 29989939 30969871 30869759 30329672
29749606 28969523 28599521 28389560 28649620 28999700
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