SWODY3
SPC AC 060824
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CST SAT MAR 06 2010
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...TX/OK...
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FORCING THE STRONG
UPPER LOW/TROUGH EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
BY 09/00Z. SUBSTANTIAL MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD
TX/OK...ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING IMMEDIATELY BENEATH THE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAW A MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS
INLAND AS SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS...IN EXCESS OF 50KT...FROM NCNTRL TX
INTO NRN OK. IT APPEARS A NARROW AXIS OF 50S SFC DEW POINTS WILL
SURGE NWD AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT TOWARD LOW CENTER...WHILE 60+ SFC DEW
POINTS COULD EASILY SPREAD INTO CNTRL TX PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY INDUCE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING AS
COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ENABLE PARCELS ROOTED NEAR 850MB TO FREELY CONVECT...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT
INDICATE AIRMASS WILL BE PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE WITHIN THIS WARM
ADVECTION ZONE...PERHAPS 500-800 J/KG MUCAPE...BUT LIKELY BUOYANT
ENOUGH FOR MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
STRONG HEATING ALONG/JUST WEST OF WIND SHIFT WILL HOWEVER GENERATE A
VERY NARROW ZONE OF STRONGER INSTABILITY ALONG WRN FRINGE OF
MOIST/WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING A SECONDARY ZONE
OF CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DRYLINE/FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AT THIS TIME FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST BUOYANCY
WILL BE THAT STRONG...THUS WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 5% PROBABILITIES FOR
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. IF STRONGER HEATING CAN OCCUR ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR THEN A SLIGHT RISK WOULD BE REQUIRED.
..DARROW.. 03/06/2010
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