SWODY1
SPC AC 060550
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST FRI MAR 05 2010
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW...WHICH CONTINUES TO
DIG OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WILL GRADUALLY MERGE INTO A STRONG
GENERALLY ZONAL BELT OF WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
CENTRAL PACIFIC. AS THIS OCCURS...IT APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHWEST MEXICO
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...BUT THE MAIN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE/MID-LEVEL COLD CORE MAY NOT REACH NORTHERN BAJA/FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA UNTIL NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.
A RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD DOWNSTREAM...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...WHILE UPPER FLOW TAKES ON AN INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE EAST OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE TO
THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT REGIME ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW PROBABLY WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MIGRATES ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
MID MISSOURI VALLEY.
FARTHER EAST...AS UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SLOW TO
LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO.
WHILE A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO MAY BEGIN TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MUCH OF THE WEST
WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE AS WELL...WITH LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
...CALIFORNIA AND SRN GREAT BASIN...
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES OVER MOST AREAS APPEAR NEAR THE 10
PERCENT MINIMUM THRESHOLD...AT BEST...FOR A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA.
LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THAT A SUBSTANTIVE
MOISTURE INFLUX AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CLOSED LOW/TROUGH IS
UNLIKELY. BUT...MID-LEVEL COOLING COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS... PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE SHASTAS/SISKIYOUS AND NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
MOISTURE RETURN INTO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
...MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER HEATING AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING CLOSED
LOW MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE LACK OF A SUBSTANTIVE
MOISTURE RETURN...CAPE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN BELOW 500
J/KG...LIMITING THE VIGOR OF THE CONVECTION.
..KERR/STOPPKOTTE/GARNER.. 03/06/2010
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