SWODY2
SPC AC 221725
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST THU JAN 22 2009
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SSEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO SRN CA/NRN BAJA
WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS EWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS
VALLEY WITHIN DEVELOPING CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME. AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A REINFORCING SURGE OF POLAR AIR
OVER THE CNTRL STATES...PRECEDED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ADVANCE
SWD AND EXTEND FROM SERN CANADA SWWD THROUGH AR AND N CNTRL TX BY
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN AXIS OF MODIFIED CP
AIR WITH 50S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NEWD THROUGH WARM SECTOR ACROSS ERN
TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. PLUME OF 6.5-7 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH TX AND A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY ABOVE RETURNING MOIST AXIS...RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION
MAINLY FROM ERN TX INTO PARTS OF AR AND LA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
WEAK DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND MODEST LAPSE RATES WITH
MUCAPE AOB 300 J/KG. MOSTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS ALONG AND NORTH OF SWD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM SRN AR INTO NRN LA WHERE SLIGHTLY STEEPER
LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST. WWD EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT INTO TX WILL BE
LIMITED BY A STRONGER CAP.
...N CNTRL CA...
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATTENDING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OVER CNTRL
THROUGH N CNTRL CA FRIDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
NOT EXCEED 10%.
..DIAL.. 01/22/2009
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