SWODY1
SPC AC 220506
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 PM CST WED JAN 21 2009
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SWRN U.S...
SHEARED UPPER VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LOCATED NEAR 27N/120W...WILL
APPROACH THE SRN CA/NRN BAJA COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BROAD
ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL MOISTENING ABOVE
850MB WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE BUOYANCY FOR DEEPENING CONVECTION AS MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACH 6.5 C/KM. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL EXIST NEAR THE SRN CA COAST...LIKELY
SUFFICIENT FOR CLOUD DEPTHS CAPABLE OF GENERATING A FEW LIGHTING
STRIKES. AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WILL BECOME HOSTILE FOR ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z. DOWNSTREAM...MODELS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE WITH DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE DESERT
SW...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING AND WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO LAYERED CLOUDINESS AND SHALLOW CONVECTION...MOST OF
WHICH WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY.
..DARROW.. 01/22/2009
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