DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 161001
SWOD48
SPC AC 161000

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AREA OF CP HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ERN HALF OF
THE U.S. DAYS 4 INTO DAY 5 MAINTAINING STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND.

BY LATE DAY 5 INTO DAY 6...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH
TX AS A LEE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE PLAINS IN WAKE OF
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...MODELS BECOME DISPERSIVE WITH
EVOLVING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE HANDLING OF A
SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. IN CONTRAST TO THE GFS'S MORE PROGRESSIVE
SRN STREAM...ECMWF AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CUTOFF A SRN STREAM
UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. WHILE MAINTAINING A PROGRESSIVE NRN
STREAM TROUGH. THIS WOULD ALLOW A POLAR FRONT TO ADVANCE INTO THE
SRN PLAINS LATE DAY 6 INTO DAY 7. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS
THIS BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE
SRN PLAINS...UPPER PATTERN WOULD NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE EVENT IF SRN STREAM UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE SWRN STATES.

..DIAL.. 11/16/2013

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