DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161301
SWODY1
SPC AC 161258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MO AND
MID MS VLYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LWR 48 THROUGH EARLY SUN
AS STRONG JET STREAKS NOW OVER THE GULF OF AK AND WA/ID PROGRESS
RAPIDLY ESE TO AMPLIFY EXISTING BROAD TROUGH OVER CNTRL NORTH
AMERICA. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN AND...LATER IN THE
PERIOD...STRENGTHEN STRONG LOW LVL JET STREAM NOW IN PLACE FROM THE
SRN PLNS TO THE UPR GRT LKS. AT THE SFC...LOOSELY-ORGANIZED LOW
PRESSURE NOW COVERING THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE OVER NE
KS/SE NEB LATE TNGT...AND MOVE INTO IA EARLY SUN...AS WA UPR IMPULSE
REACHES THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS.

PERSISTENT WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE LOW-LVL JET STREAM...AND
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD UPR IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE CNTRL/SRN
HIGH PLNS...SHOULD FOSTER A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER A BROAD SWATH FROM THE SRN PLNS TO THE UPR
GRT LKS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BECOME SVR...ESPECIALLY LATE
TNGT AND EARLY SUN...OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MO AND MID MS VLYS.

...LWR MO TO MID MS VLYS TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUN...
LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE/ELONGATED BAND OF ASCENT NOW EXTENDING FROM
WRN KS SSW INTO ERN NM SHOULD SHEAR ENE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS
TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE MID/UPR MS VLY TNGT. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TO ITS E DURING THE
PERIOD...FROM PARTS OF OK NEWD INTO IL. WHILE ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE WITH TIME...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK...WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SVR RISK LIMITED TO MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL...DESPITE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD.

FARTHER NW...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SFC-BASED
STORMS LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY TNGT AS THE BAND OF ASCENT
OVERTAKES NW FRINGE OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN OVER NRN MO/SRN IA.
RELATIVELY COOL MID-LVL TEMPS AND 60+ KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR ATOP ZONE
OF LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE MARKING WRN EDGE OF THE SSWLY LLJ COULD
SUPPORT A SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH A RISK FOR SVR HAIL/WIND...AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID EVE AS UPR
IMPULSE CONTINUES ENE AWAY FROM REGION AND DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS.

A NEW ROUND OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR TSTMS MAY ARISE LATER TNGT
OR...MORE LIKELY...EARLY SUN OVER SRN/CNTRL IA AND PERHAPS ADJACENT
PARTS OF MO AND NW IL AS STRONGER ASCENT AND MID-LVL COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAK NOW OVER WA/ID APPROACH THE REGION.
COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING WINDS /WITH 500 MB SPEEDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 75 KTS/...MOISTENING LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 60 F/...AND CONVERGENT LOW-LVL FLOW INVOF
DEEPENING SFC LOW TOGETHER SUGGEST A CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH SVR HAIL...WIND...AND A COUPLE TORNADOES.

...ARKLATEX TO LWR OH VLY LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUN...
INCREASING MOISTURE WITHIN CONFLUENCE ZONE ON ERN SIDE OF PERSISTENT
LOW-LVL JET STREAM EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF LOOSELY-ORGANIZED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM NE TX/SW
AR NEWD INTO SE MO AND THE LWR OH VLY LATER TODAY
AND...ESPECIALLY...TNGT/EARLY SUN. WHILE MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY WITH NEWD EXTENT...BY LATE
TNGT/EARLY SUN SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME NEARLY SFC-BASED
ACROSS ERN AR/FAR SE MO INTO FAR SRN IL...SW IND...WRN KY...AND WRN
TN. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA WILL REMAIN MINIMAL.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD ON SE FRINGE OF UPR
TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS/MID MS VLY...SOME RISK MAY
DEVELOP FOR EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS/LEWPS. SUCH ACTIVITY COULD POSE A
CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A TORNADO AND/OR LOCALLY DMGG WIND...ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

..CORFIDI/PETERS.. 11/16/2013

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