SWODY1
SPC AC 271221
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 AM CDT SAT OCT 27 2007
VALID 271300Z - 281200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..PA/NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
LARGE UPPER LOW THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN
STATES FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE OVERNIGHT
AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ROTATES
EASTWARD. AS THE LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
PA/NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE HUDSON VALLEY INDICATE WINDS OF 40+ KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE INCREASING TO OVER 100 KNOTS AT 250MB. THESE STRONG WINDS
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUSTS IF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD BECOME ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...CURRENT GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT POOR LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP CAPE VALUES NEAR ZERO. SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY OVER THIS REGION...BUT MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS UNLIKELY. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN
FORECAST OF LESS THAN 5 PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WIND.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG
TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE DELMARVA REGION SOUTHWARD INTO FL.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE TODAY.
.HART/GRAMS.. 10/27/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment