SWODY1
SPC AC 030044
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010
VALID 030100Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MT EWD ACROSS ND AND
INTO FAR NWRN MN...
...ERN MT/ND AND FAR NWRN MN...
UPPER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD TONIGHT AS
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY
IMPULSE FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT WAS MOVING NEWD THROUGH MT THIS
EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE...A COLD FRONT HAD SHIFTED EWD INTO
ERN MT AND CENTRAL WY. MOST STORMS WERE POST FRONTAL DUE TO THE
STRONGER FORCING LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
LARGE SCALE LIFT FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
SHIFT NEWD INTO SRN CANADA...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET/WARM
ADVECTION AND GRADUALLY LOWERING HEIGHTS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH
THESE STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...THE SHEAR IN THE CLOUD
BEARING LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY...REFERENCE BIS 00Z
SOUNDING...WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WITH ANY
SUSTAINED STORMS.
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
A BAND OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS
STRETCHED FROM WRN NEB SWWD INTO FAR NERN NM. MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW
ACROSS THIS REGION WAS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...20 KT IN NEB TO 10
KT IN SERN CO/NERN NM....WITH WEAK FORCING. THEREFORE EXPECT STORMS
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS BOUNDARY COOLS AND STABILIZES. HOWEVER...THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORM
BAND...ESPECIALLY IN WRN NEB...FAR NWRN KS AND EAST CENTRAL CO...
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL UNTIL 03Z.
..IMY.. 07/03/2010
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