MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1183

ACUS11 KWNS 021820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021819
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-021915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021819Z - 021915Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN CO OVER
THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIATING ACROSS CNTRL CO DUE TO WARMING
SFC TEMPS AND DESTABILIZATION. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL EXPAND EWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS OF ERN CO. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MODERATE INSTABILITY
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN CO WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GENERALLY
BELOW 30 KT. THIS SUGGESTS ANY SEVERE THREAT THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
REMAIN UNORGANIZED GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE SFC TO 850 MB LAPSE
RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM. THIS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS.

IN NERN CO...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER THAN AREAS TO THE SOUTH AS
EVIDENCED BY THE PLATTEVILLE PROFILER. THIS COULD SUPPORT A MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WITH SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...TEMPS ALOFT ARE A BIT
COOLER WHICH WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL. IF A CLUSTER OF
STRONG STORMS CAN DEVELOP...THEN A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AND A WW MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 07/02/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 41040310 39720243 38070225 37390304 37130411 37440495
38170553 38960564 40430568 41040478 41040310

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