SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221755
TNZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-221900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0852
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...NWRN GA...MIDDLE/ERN TN...CNTRL/ERN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 221755Z - 221900Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN VALLEY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING CU FIELD WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MIDDLE TN AND NORTHERN AL. THIS ACTIVITY IS INTENSIFYING AHEAD OF A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS AR/WEST TN...AND IN
REGION WHERE SUBSTANTIAL HEATING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED TODAY.
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE YIELDING MINIMAL CINH AND MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG
IN THIS REGION...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 35-40 KNOTS OF DEEP
LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS SHOULD PROMOTE ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
..HART.. 05/22/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...
BMX...HUN...PAH...
LAT...LON 37248706 37928613 38588381 38018267 37028234 35678301
34928422 34178548 34118708 34268796 35688696 37248706
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