SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221742
OKZ000-TXZ000-221945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0851
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL/NWRN TX INTO S-CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 221742Z - 221945Z
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG
THE DRYLINE BY MID-AFTERNOON. PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/. THE PROBABILITY OF ONE OR MORE WW ISSUANCES
BY 20Z IS 80 PERCENT.
17Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED DRYLINE FROM AROUND 40 E SPS
SWWD TO 60 SE MAF. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CU
DEEPENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. INCIPIENT TSTM FORMATION
APPEARS PROBABLE BY 19Z AS AIR MASS HAS BECOME LARGELY UNCAPPED
BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z DRT/FWD RAOBS WITH MLCAPE AOA 4000 J/KG. THIS
EXTREME INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 35 TO 40 KT W/SWLYS AT 500 MB WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL.
MODEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF THE
TORNADO THREAT. ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY...LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
INCREASING NEAR AND AFTER 00Z AS MASS RESPONSE OCCURS DOWNSTREAM OF
A WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. FARTHER EAST... STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SAMPLED IN PROFILER/VWP DATA ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR SHOULD
LARGELY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A THREAT FOR TORNADOES.
..GRAMS.. 05/22/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 34329783 34879749 34899650 34319637 32549758 31499895
31220006 31360108 31640119 31910099 32499995 32859874
34329783
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