SWOD48
SPC AC 070852
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 AM CST SAT NOV 07 2009
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
GULF REGION BY TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL WEDNESDAY AS
IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH PROGRESSIVE SRN STREAM TROUGH AND E-W
ORIENTED BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF. IDA MAY APPROACH THE GULF COAST
BEFORE RETREATING SEWD INTO THE GULF BY WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE STORM WILL
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT INLAND.
HOWEVER...IDA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
RISKS IN LATER OUTLOOKS. SEE NHC DISCUSSIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON
IDA.
BEYOND DAY 5...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOW UNTIL
POSSIBLY DAY 8 WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH COULD MOVE INTO THE CNTRL U.S.
PRECEDED BY A RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE ON THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. UNCERTAINTY
ALSO EXISTS REGARDING DEGREE OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN. FOR THESE
REASONS...NO SEVERE RISK AREA WILL BE INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME.
..DIAL.. 11/07/2009
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