MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0230

ACUS11 KWNS 181923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181922
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-182115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0230
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN IL AND EAST
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 181922Z - 182115Z

TSTMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH 20Z-22Z WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA INTO
SOUTHERN IL AND EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MO. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
INCREASED ACROSS THE WABASH VALLEY NEAR/NORTH OF TERRE HAUTE...WITH
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER CU EVIDENT IN THE NEAR SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE
ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE I-70/I-44 CORRIDOR IN SOUTH CENTRAL IL/EAST
CENTRAL MO. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE
HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S F SHOULD
QUICKLY ERODE REMAINING CINH...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS
LIKELY TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF
RATHER MODEST INSTABILITY/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL /GENERALLY TO 1 INCH/ THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED DUE TO A
PERCEIVED MARGINAL/ISOLD SEVERE RISK.

..GUYER.. 03/18/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 37539125 38369245 40088719 39648570 38358649 37608850
37539125

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