SWODY1
SPC AC 181954
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2009
VALID 182000Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN IND/SRN IL/SE MO...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED FROM SRN NY WSWWD ACROSS NRN OH INTO CNTRL IND...SCNTRL IL
AND SE MO. RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A POCKET OF INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL IND SWWD INTO SE MO WHERE
MUCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO BETWEEN 200 AND 500 J/KG. SFC-BASED
INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG THIS AXIS OF INSTABILITY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...REF MCD 230...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST
RUC QPF FORECAST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON THE LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO STEEPENING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SE MO EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO
MAXIMIZED. THIS MAY ALSO SUPPORT A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT
ESPECIALLY FROM SRN IN WSWWD ALONG THE INTERSTATE-44 CORRIDOR INTO
SCNTRL MO.
..BROYLES.. 03/18/2009
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