SWOD48
SPC AC 140849
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2008
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH ROUGHLY DAY 6...AS
BOTH CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ERN
CONUS. AS THIS OCCURS...WEAK LOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INVOF THE
SERN U.S. ATLANTIC COAST DAY 5 /SAT. OCT. 18/ -- WITH THE GFS
DEPICTING OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT AND THE ECMWF DEVELOPMENT FORECAST TO
BE INITIALLY ONSHORE. IN EITHER CASE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SWD ACROSS FL...LIKELY CLEARING S FL BY THE END OF
DAY 5. MORE SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE GULF
STREAM DAY 6...WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE NNEWD INVOF THE U.S.
ATLANTIC COAST.
ATTM...LITTLE SEVERE THREAT IS EVIDENT...AS THE SERN U.S. WARM
SECTOR DAYS 4-5 WILL LIKELY BE ONLY MINIMALLY UNSTABLE. WHILE
ONSHORE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW -- AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF -- WOULD
BE A BIT MORE BULLISH IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THREAT SHOULD
STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED DUE TO AN OVERALL LACK OF
INSTABILITY.
..GOSS.. 10/14/2008
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