SWODY1
SPC AC 150044
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2008
VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS WEST
TX/CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING...WHILE THE FRONT BEGINS TO GRADUALLY
RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS MO AND PORTIONS OF IL/INDIANA TONIGHT. AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR LIMITED TSTM
POTENTIAL THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WEAK CAPE/POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL CONSIDERABLY LIMIT A SEVERE TSTM RISK OVERALL.
ACROSS OK/SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHERN MO...WITH EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET /35-40 KT 850 MB/ WILL MODESTLY INCREASE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN A
MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...SOME SHOWER/TSTM ROTATION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TONIGHT ALONG/EAST OF THE FRONT FROM OK INTO SOUTHERN MO.
HOWEVER...AN ORGANIZED WIND/TORNADO RISK IS UNLIKELY OWING TO WEAK
INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES PER 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS FROM NORMAN
OK/SPRINGFIELD MO.
..GUYER.. 10/15/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment