DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 081231
SWODY1
SPC AC 081229

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2012

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD...LARGELY CONFLUENT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF
THE CONUS...DOWNSTREAM FROM REX BLOCK OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC. A
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER W TN/NRN MS WILL MOVE ENE TO THE
CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY...AND TO THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY
12Z TUE.

AT LWR LVLS...COOL AND/OR DRY AIR WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS...IN
WAKE OF RECENT POLAR COLD FRONT. MARITIME TROPICAL AIR
WILL...HOWEVER...PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO ENE TO OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST. SCTD AREAS OF DIURNALLY
ENHANCED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

...SE U.S...
SCTD AREAS OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH TUE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER THE FL PENINSULA.
OTHER STORMS MAY FORM IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM SE GA
INTO THE CAROLINAS/ERN MID ATLANTIC AS ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TN VLY UPR IMPULSE.

LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
AND MODEST SFC HEATING/CLOUDS. THUS...PROSPECTS FOR SVR WEATHER
APPEAR LOW...DESPITE PRESENCE OF APPRECIABLE SHEAR OVER THE
CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC...AND RICH MOISTURE IN FL/SE GA.

...NRN CA LATER TODAY/TNGT...
UPR LOW OF REX BLOCK WILL CONTINUE EDGING ESE TOWARD THE NRN CA CST.
WHILE AN ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE
NRN CA CST LATER IN THE PERIOD...OVERALL RISK APPEARS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A CATEGORICAL THUNDER AREA. IN THE MEAN TIME...STEEP MID LVL
LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR NRN CA
THIS AFTN ON THE NE FRINGE OF THE UPR LOW. A ROGUE STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT SPARSE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
SUSTAINED DIURNAL TSTMS OVER REGION.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 10/08/2012

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