DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 080856
SWOD48
SPC AC 080855

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2012

VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE TRANSITION TO A MORE
ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME LATE THIS COMING WORK WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS...A CLOSED LOW...MIGRATING INLAND
ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY MID WEEK...APPEARS LIKELY TO RAPIDLY
ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. AND
IT IS APPEARING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
SUGGESTIVE THAT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. THIS SEEMS MOST
PROBABLE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...THE NORTHWESTERN THIRDS OF MISSOURI...IOWA AND ADJACENT
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
HOWEVER...THIS TIME FRAME ALSO COINCIDES WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN SPREAD AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLE DATA...PARTICULARLY CONCERNING THE
SPEED OF THE UPPER IMPULSE. QUESTIONS ALSO LINGER CONCERNING THE
DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...WHICH COULD
BE IMPACTED SIGNIFICANTLY BY PRIOR CONVECTION. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS TO CONFIDENTLY ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

..KERR.. 10/08/2012

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