MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2028

ACUS11 KWNS 082155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082155
FLZ000-090030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2028
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 PM CDT MON OCT 08 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 082155Z - 090030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA INTO EARLY EVENING. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW
IS NOT NEEDED. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO IMPACT PARTS OF SW
FL.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR
JACKSONVILLE TO E OF ST. PETERSBURG TO SE OF NAPLES. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...THOUGH RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND
MODESTLY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO GENERALLY
MODERATE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...WITH
STRONGER INSTABILITY FOUND ACROSS SOUTH FL WHERE GREATER INSOLATION
HAS OCCURRED. ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM TAMPA TO
MELBOURNE...VWP DATA SUGGEST AROUND 15-30 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR
WHICH WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL MULTICELL STRUCTURES WITH STRONG
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA.
FARTHER SOUTH...WEAKER MID-LEVEL FLOW PER MIAMI VWP DATA WOULD
SUGGEST A MORE PULSE-LIKE MODE. HOWEVER...LIMITED STORM MOTION WITH
THE WEAKER FLOW REGIME WILL SUPPORT A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FROM ERN
CHARLOTTE/WRN GLADES COUNTIES SWD INTO WRN COLLIER COUNTY...WHERE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTERACTING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 10/08/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 27908050 27438056 26568078 26048129 26078163 26448180
27428185 27908217 28368212 28938186 29578171 30148162
30558165 30658152 30618138 30478136 29698118 28928083
28628061 27908050

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