SWODY3
SPC AC 310829
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2012
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WCNTRL TX...
...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
A SOMEWHAT FLATTENED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY ON THURSDAY. ON
THE WRN SIDE OF THE RIDGE....MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE AXIS OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET IN WEST TX THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION RAPIDLY
EXPANDING NWD ACROSS NW TX AND WRN OK THURSDAY EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THURSDAY EVENING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR FROM 00Z TO 06Z SHOW
MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THIS ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
A LARGE HAIL THREAT. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY IF SFC-BASED STORMS CAN INITIATE. HOWEVER...THE LOCATION
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. THE NAM IS FOCUSING
THE MOST CONVECTION FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE...WRN OK AND SRN KS WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE
DEVELOPMENT IN WEST AND NORTHWEST TX. AT THIS POINT...AM FAVORING
THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. AS THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA WILL LIKELY NEEDED TO BE MOVED OR CHANGED IN THE DAY 2
OUTLOOK.
..BROYLES.. 01/31/2012
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