SWODY2
SPC AC 310840
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2012
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...ARKLATEX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS A
40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE ARKLATEX. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM CNTRL
TX EXTENDING NEWD INTO SWRN AR WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND DALLAS
TX AT 21Z SHOW MUCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM. THIS ALONG WITH 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND MOVE INTO THE SRN OZARKS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR THE HAIL THREAT IS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THE GFS DEVELOPS FEWER STORMS AND IS FURTHER TO
THE EAST. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER TO THE NORTH WHILE THE NAM DEVELOPS
STORMS BACK TO THE WEST AROUND THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX. HAVE
TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE THREE SOLUTIONS MAINTAINING A 5
PERCENT HAIL PROBABILITY FROM NEAR DALLAS ENEWD TO JUST NORTH OF
SHREVEPORT LA.
..BROYLES.. 01/31/2012
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